On the occasion of the upcoming anniversary

Ukraine war map
Source: Institute for the Study of War

Tomorrow will be the first anniversary of the full-fledged Russian invasion of Ukraine. No, this is not the first anniversary of the war - the war started 20 February 2014, so we are a few days past its ninth anniversary. What will be a year old tomorrow is the full blown invasion, an attempt to conquer Ukraine in a delusional drive towards restoration of the Russian empire.

I had failed to foresee the course of this war. Last Spring as what was planned as a victorious march through Ukraine turned into a merciless war, when heroic efforts of the Ukrainian defense forces resulted in the Russian offense being checked and Russia suffering massive casualties, I expected Russia to give up. I hoped if casualties, if nothing else, would cause the Russian public to revolt against the war. But that, sadly, did not happen. The causes of this are many but I suspect imperial ideology and mind-numbing collectivism are at the root of the current dynamics of the Russian society.

That said, I will dare to make another prediction now. Those who follow the events had heard many speculations. Some of them predicted Russia launching a new, decisive offensive around the date of the first anniversary of the invasion. Others predicted a massive missile or bomb strike in an attempt to intimidate the Ukrainians. However, I predict that nothing will happen that is extraordinary, or at least nothing that has not happened already. At worst, a missile strike may happen - but Ukraine has survived many of them already and will survive this one. I suspect all the sabre rattling on the part of Russia is just that as if they had the means to make a decisive
breakthrough that would have happened already.

It is almost 24 February in Ukraine already. The wait will not be long.

References

Russo-Ukrainian War (wiki, archived 8 December 2022)

Phantom victory of the "Russian world" - memory holed, but not forgotten
@borepstein , 8 January 2023

Russia recruiting Afghan commandos fleeing Taliban: reports
@borepstein , 6 November 2022

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